Anyone who was in an NCAA basketball bracket tournament this year  certainly knows that, as we saw Gonzaga, UNLV and Duke  all  eliminated before the Sweet Sixteen round.

In a different sport, horseracing fans also know they can study and analyze the Racing Form for hours but a long-shot will periodically win and unpredictably nose out the favorites at the finish line.

It’s not just in finances or sports that past performance doesn’t assure success.
Take an expensive car with very low mileage, equipped with premium grade tires. That car can still get a flat or blow a  tire. 

A person can follow a nutritious diet, keep his or her weight in check and exercise regularly, yet suddenly be stricken by a severe illness.

A bag of brand-name salad mix can be recalled across the nation because it reportedly caused some people to become very ill. Similarly, we know that ground beef can carry Mad Cow Disease.

We remember a hotel in Philadelphia, years ago, causing widespread panic because “Legionnaires’ Disease” was transmitted through its air ducts.

And in  more recent, glaring examples of successful  past performance being no assurance of  future positive results,  we point to this year’s plethora of  puzzling political elections in which  poll takers and newscasters assured us of a certain outcome, but those results didn't happen..

Hillary Clinton was deemed a sure loser way back at the beginning of 2008, but she defied the prognosticators and pollsters and managed several state victories. 

John McCain, another candidate almost written off by commentators and counters, snatched the Republican presidential nomination convincingly, well after early figures showed him a very distant third or fourth choice.

In this season's political arena, we see candidates’ personal popularity rise and fall as potential voters judge them according to their admissions of amoral activity, ranging from a marijuana experiment in college days to flagrant extramarital liaisons. “Client Nine lost not just his popularity rating but his revered post as governor this way.

The point is simple. There are no guarantees that any established or publicly known history or personal timetable of achievements will produce a specific conclusion. There’s no sure bet. We roll the dice when we roll out of bed in the morning. Life is chancy. 

Go figure ... but it won’t help.